Demand Modeling & Market Estimation
Our market sizing and forecasting methodology integrates both top-down and bottom-up approaches, coupled with multi-level data triangulation, to ensure robustness and precision.
Bottom-Up Approach: This method begins by estimating the market size from the granular level, aggregating data points such as:
- Content Licensing Fees per Hour/Title: Analyzing average revenues generated by documentary content based on runtime, exclusivity, platform, and distribution territories.
- Average Subscription Revenue per Documentary Viewer/Subscriber: Estimating the portion of streaming subscription revenue directly attributable to documentary content viewership and engagement.
- Production Expenditure on New Documentary Titles: Summing the budgets allocated to the creation of new documentary films and TV shows globally, segmented by type (English, Chinese, etc.) and application (Man, Woman, Children, Others).
- Advertising Revenue Generated by Documentary Content: Assessing ad spend associated with documentary programming across ad-supported streaming platforms and traditional broadcast networks.
These bottom-up estimates are then validated against and integrated with macro-level market data.
Top-Down Approach: This approach starts with analyzing the broader media and entertainment market size, and subsequently filters down to the specific documentary film and TV show segment based on market share, historical trends, and macroeconomic indicators. Factors like global media consumption trends, internet penetration, growth of streaming services, and disposable income are considered in this broader market segmentation.
Multi-Level Data Triangulation: This crucial step involves cross-referencing findings from primary interviews, secondary research, and quantitative models. Any discrepancies are meticulously investigated and reconciled through further expert consultations or additional data analysis, ensuring a cohesive and validated market picture. This iterative process helps in refining assumptions and adjusting forecasts to reflect the most accurate market reality.