Demand Modeling & Market Estimation
Our market sizing and forecasting methodologies integrate both top-down and bottom-up approaches, triangulated across multiple data points to ensure robust estimates.
Bottom-Up Approach: This method begins at the granular level, aggregating data points to build the total market size. Key metrics and variables used include:
- Regional livestock population data (Pigs, Chickens) sourced from national agricultural statistics and FAO.
- Average therapeutic and prophylactic Colistin dosage rates (mg/kg body weight or per ton of feed) as recommended by veterinary guidelines and confirmed by primary interviews.
- Prevalence rates of Colistin-sensitive bacterial infections (e.g., Enterobacteriaceae causing post-weaning diarrhea in piglets, CRD in poultry) within target animal populations.
- Average Selling Price (ASP) of Colistin API and various premix formulations across different regional markets, adjusted for currency fluctuations and local market dynamics.
Top-Down Approach: This involves validating bottom-up estimates by considering macro-economic indicators, overall animal health market trends, and revenues reported by key market players for their animal health divisions, where Colistin forms a part.
Data Triangulation: All gathered data, whether from primary interviews or secondary sources, undergoes a rigorous triangulation process. This involves cross-referencing information from different sources and methodologies to validate findings, identify discrepancies, and refine market estimates, ultimately enhancing the accuracy and reliability of our forecasts for Colistin by application, type, and region.